Oil: Goldman Maintains $45.00 Target, Says Risks "Skew" Lower

And somewhere in North Dakota a roughneck gives a futile but heartfelt 'skew you'.
Front futures $44.60 down 55 cents.

From Bloomberg:
Oil Slides to Lowest Since March as Goldman Sees Glut

Oil dropped to the lowest in more than four months on expectation a global glut that drove prices into a bear market will be prolonged.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates the global crude oversupply is running at 2 million barrels a day and storage may be filled by the fall, forcing the market to adjust, analysts including Jeffrey Currie said in a report dated Thursday. U.S. crude supplies remain about 100 million barrels above the five-year seasonal average, Energy Information Administration data on Wednesday showed.

Oil moved into a bear market in July on signs the global surplus will persist as the U.S. pumps near the fastest rate in three decades and the largest OPEC members produced record volumes. The Bloomberg Commodity Index, which fell almost 11 percent in July, has resumed its decline.

“Prices are under pressure because we’ve got more and more crude coming out of the ground,” Michael Corcelli, chief investment officer of hedge fund Alexander Alternative Capital LLC in Miami, said by phone. “Questions about storage capacity have already been brought up.”

WTI for September delivery fell 66 cents, or 1.5 percent, to $44.49 at 1:43 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract touched $44.20, the lowest since March 20. Prices are down 17 percent this year.

Supply, Demand
Brent for September settlement dropped 36 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $49.23 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It touched $48.88, the lowest since Jan. 30. The European benchmark crude traded at a $4.74 premium to WTI.

“It’s the familiar theme of oversupply and shaky demand,” John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York-based hedge fund, said by phone. “The negative reaction to yesterday’s inventory report set up for another drop today. We clearly have more than ample supply.”

About 170 million barrels of crude and fuel have been added to storage tanks and 50 million to floating storage globally since January, according to the Goldman report. Global oil oversupply has risen from 1.8 million barrels a day in the first half of 2015, Goldman said. The balance between supply and demand may only be restored by 2016, Goldman said.

Shoulder Months
“While we maintain our near-term WTI target of $45 a barrel, we want to emphasize that the risks remain substantially skewed to the downside, particularly as we enter the shoulder months this autumn,” the Goldman analysts said....MORE

If you missed when it came out, and give a flying flock, here's Goldman's "New Oil Order" presentation.
Previously:

May 20, 2015
"Why Is Oil Price So Stubbornly High, Asks Goldman Sachs"

July WTI $58.84 up 85 cents.
OilPrice's story starts with the headline:Goldman Sachs Predicting $45 Oil By October

July 8, 2015
Goldman Sees Negative Loop in Commodities From Excess Money

Posted by Tutik W